Covid Tracker

9.3 μs

Today's date: 2020-10-08
Database last date: 10/7/20

184 ms

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begin 
    _BASE_DIR = joinpath(@__DIR__, "..")
    push!(LOAD_PATH, joinpath(_BASE_DIR, ".."))
    using CovidTracker
end

103 s

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df = download_covid_data();

15 s

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_SIZE = (690, 250); # plotsize

4.4 μs

State Plots

5.2 μs

17.8 s

187 ms

23.1 ms

20.9 ms

18.1 ms

22.3 ms

21.3 ms

24.9 ms

19.4 ms

21.9 ms

21 ms

Country plots

7.1 μs

1.5 s

284 ms

16.3 ms

16.1 ms

Europe

8.9 μs

18.2 ms

16.7 ms

19.3 ms

16.8 ms

17.7 ms

17.3 ms

18.2 ms

18.6 ms

18.9 ms

18.3 ms

Latin America

6.8 μs

18.8 ms

22.3 ms

18.8 ms

16.3 ms

17.4 ms

15.9 ms

16.8 ms

17.2 ms

24.2 ms

17.4 ms

23.5 ms

A Comparison between Nordic Countries

8.8 μs

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begin 
    using FredData
    using Plots
    using DataFrames
end

7.8 s

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# make sure you have your API key access set up 
# https://github.com/micahjsmith/FredData.jl
f = Fred();

114 ms

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begin 
    # Quarterly real GDP at 2010 constant prices
    sweden_gdp = get_data(f, "CLVMNACSCAB1GQSE")
    denmark_gdp = get_data(f, "CLVMNACSCAB1GQDK")
    norway_gdp = get_data(f, "CLVMNACSCAB1GQNO")
    finland_gdp = get_data(f, "CLVMNACSCAB1GQFI")
end;

3.4 s

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normalized_gdp_plots(range=20)

2.2 ms

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normalized_gdp_plots(range=4)

3.6 ms

By not locking down, Sweden saved around 2% of GDP with respect to its neighbors in 2020 Q1.

3.5 μs

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# NOTE: norway quarterly GDP data may be off by a month

400 ns

Cost of life calculation

11.9 μs

Sweden avoided the GDP drop of its neighbors in 2020Q1.

6.9 μs

What if Sweden had the death rate of Norway, but GDP will have fallen as much as in Norway in the 2020Q2.? What's the GDP gain per unit of life lost?

14.2 μs

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begin 
    death_rate_NOR = total_deaths("Norway") / get_pop("NO")
    death_rate_SWE = total_deaths("Sweden") / get_pop("SE")
end;

303 ms

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begin
    # annual GDP for Sweden in current USD 
    annual_GDP_SWE_USD = get_data(f, "MKTGDPSEA646NWDB").data["value"][end]
    
    # quarterly value
    quarterly_GDP_SWE_USD = annual_GDP_SWE_USD / 4
    
    # counter_factual_deaths if Sweden had Norway mortality rate
    counter_factual_deaths_saved_SWE = get_pop("SE") * 
        (death_rate_SWE - death_rate_NOR)
    
    idx_NOR = findfirst(
        x -> x >= Dates.Date(2020,01,01), 
        norway_gdp.data["date"]
    ) 
    idx_SWE = findfirst(
        x -> x >= Dates.Date(2020,01,01), 
        sweden_gdp.data["date"]
    ) 
    
    # counter factual GDP loss if Sweden GDP would have fallen in 2020 Q2 by the same
    # amount as Norway
    counter_factual_gdp_loss_SWE_USD = quarterly_GDP_SWE_USD *
        (1 - normalize(norway_gdp)[idx_NOR] / normalize(sweden_gdp)[idx_SWE])
end;

479 ms

value_of_life

466818.0247820191

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value_of_life = counter_factual_gdp_loss_SWE_USD / counter_factual_deaths_saved_SWE

8 μs

The counter factual value of life is USD 466,818.

13 ms

Auxiliary functions

11 μs

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using Suppressor

26.4 ms

normalize (generic function with 1 method)

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function normalize(series; date=Dates.Date(2019,10, 1))
    idx = findfirst(x -> x >= date, series.data["date"]) 
    series.data["value"] / series.data["value"][idx]
end

95.9 μs

normalized_gdp_plots (generic function with 1 method)

x
 
function normalized_gdp_plots(; range=20, legendpos=:bottom) 
    fig = plot(
        sweden_gdp.data["date"][end-range:end], 
        log.(normalize(sweden_gdp)[end-range:end]), 
        label="SWE", lw=2, marker=:auto, 
        legend=legendpos,
        title="Log Quarterly Real GDP, SA\n2019Q4 = 0")
    plot!(fig, 
        denmark_gdp.data["date"][end-range:end], 
        log.(normalize(denmark_gdp)[end-range:end]), 
        label="DNK", lw=2, marker=:auto)
    plot!(fig, 
        norway_gdp.data["date"][end-range:end], 
        log.(normalize(norway_gdp)[end-range:end]), 
        label="NOR", lw=2, marker=:auto)
    plot!(fig, 
        finland_gdp.data["date"][end-range:end], 
        log.(normalize(finland_gdp)[end-range:end]), 
        label="FIN", lw=2, marker=:auto)
    return fig
end

88.4 μs

total_deaths (generic function with 1 method)

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function total_deaths(country)
    DATE_STR = r"^\d{1,2}\/\d{1,2}\/\d{2}$"
    return filter(x-> x["Country/Region"] === country, df[:global_deaths]) |>
        x -> x[!, DATE_STR] |>
        x -> mapcols(sum ∘ skipmissing, x) |>
        x -> x[end][1]
end 

61.1 μs

commas (generic function with 1 method)

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# https://stackoverflow.com/questions/52213829/in-julia-insert-commas-into-integers-for-printing-like-python-3-6
​
function commas(num::Integer)
    str = string(num)
    return replace(str, r"(?<=[0-9])(?=(?:[0-9]{3})+(?![0-9]))" => ",")
end

57.4 μs

with_terminal (generic function with 1 method)

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function with_terminal(f)
    local spam_out, spam_err
    @color_output false begin
        spam_out = @capture_out begin
            spam_err = @capture_err begin
                f()
            end
        end
    end
    spam_out, spam_err
    
    HTML("""
        <style>
        div.vintage_terminal {
            
        }
        div.vintage_terminal pre {
            color: #ddd;
            background-color: #333;
            border: 5px solid pink;
            font-size: .75rem;
        }
        
        </style>
    <div class="vintage_terminal">
        <pre>$(Markdown.htmlesc(spam_out))</pre>
    </div>
    """)
end

154 μs